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Future Energy and Transportation

Future Energy and Transportation

Future Energy and Transportation

How Silicon Valley is making Oil, Nuclear, Natural Gas, Coal, Electric Utilities and Conventional Cars Obsolete by 2030

Clean Sustainable 3Your probably wondering what the Future Energy and Transportation has to do with a Handyman Blog. Absolutely nothing.  But every one in a while I run across a great article I think needs to be re-posted.  This is one of those articles, so enjoy.

Tony Seba is the author of “Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation”, “Solar Trillions” and “Winners Take All”, a serial Silicon Valley entrepreneur, and an instructor in Entrepreneurship, Disruption and Clean Energy at Stanford’s Continuing Studies Program. His work focuses on clean energy, entrepreneurship, market disruption, and the exponential technology trends, business model innovation, and product architecture innovations that are leading to the disruption of some of the world’s major industries, such as energy, transportation, infrastructure, finance, and manufacturing.  Future Energy and Transportation.

He is an instructor at Stanford University’s Continuing Studies Program, where he has taught entrepreneurship, disruption, and clean energy. He has created and taught the following courses: “Understanding and Leading Market Disruption”, “Clean Energy and Transportation – Market and Investment
Opportunities
“, “Strategic Marketing of High Tech and Cleantech“, “Finance for Marketing, Engineers, and Entrepreneurs“ and “Business and Revenue Models Innovation“, He has also taught at top business school around the world such as The Auckland University (New Zealand) Business School, at Singularity University, and in-company at some of the world’s top high tech companies such as Google, Inc..

We are on the cusp of the most radical transformation in energy in a century. Exponentially improving technologies such as solar, electric vehicles, and autonomous (self-driving) cars are turning the industrial-era energy industry on its head and making the gasoline vehicle obsolete.  Future Energy and Transportation.

Tony Seba’s talk focuses on market disruptions caused by exponential technology improvement, business model innovation, and disruptive product design enabled by this convergence. His new book “Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation” projects that by 2030:
– All new energy will be provided by solar or wind.
– The architecture of energy will flip from centralized, command-and-control, secretive, and extractive to distributed, mobile, intelligent and participatory.
– Electric Utilities as we know them will be obsolete.
– Oil will be obsolete.
– Nuclear will be obsolete.
– Natural Gas will be obsolete.
– Coal will be obsolete.
– All new mass-market vehicles will be electric.

The technology and market trends that are leading to this $12 trillion/year disruption are well underway.
-The global solar market has grown at a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 41% since 2000.
-The cost of Solar PV has decreased by a factor of 222X since 1970.
– Solar has improved its relative cost position by 2,900X relative to nuclear 3,200 relative to natural gas since 1970 and 1,294 times relative to petroleum.  Future Energy and Transportation.

-Unsubsidized utility scale solar is already cheaper than nuclear coal and diesel.

-Unsubsidized rooftop solar will be cheaper than the cost of transmission making central generation obsolete

This is the video of a keynote titled “”Clean Disruption: Why Energy and Transportation will be Obsolete by 2030”

Just like the PC, the Internet, and the cell phone disrupted the old paradigm of information, computing and telecommunications, a new architecture of energy is transforming the century-old centralized, resource-based, utility-centric energy model with a distributed, mobile, knowledge-based, and user-centric model. Homes, buildings, and cars are no longer passive energy consumers but adaptive learning systems with the ability to generate, store, manage, and transmit power intelligently. The implications are far-reaching: conventional energy sources (oil, nuclear, natural gas, and coal), the internal combustion engine, and the utility business models are on the cusp of disruption. Assets will be stranded and conventional energy portfolios will meltdown. This is not in the future. This is now.

TOYOTA has published the following:  After lagging behind the rest of the industry when it comes to electrification due to being entrenched in fuel cell hydrogen, Toyota is now announcing today a major expansion of its electric vehicle plans.  Future Energy and Transportation.

The Japanese automaker is aiming to launch 10 new BEVs worldwide by “the early 2020s” and it wants to havelectric options throughout its entire lineup of cars by 2025. The new plan is being announced today in Tokyo.

Here are the bulletpoints:

Electrification across the entire Toyota and Lexus line-up
  • By around 2030, Toyota aims to have sales of more than 5.5 million electrified vehicles, including more than 1 million zero-emission vehicles (BEVs, FCEVs).
  • Additionally, by around 2025, every model in the Toyota and Lexus line-up around the world will be available either as a dedicated electrified model or have an electrified option. This will be achieved by increasing the number of dedicated HEV, PHEV, BEV, and FCEV models and by generalizing the availability of HEV, PHEV and/or BEV options to all its models.
  • As a result, the number of models developed without an electrified version will be zero.
Zero-emission Vehicles
  • Toyota will accelerate the popularization of BEVs with more than 10 BEV models to be available worldwide by the early 2020s, starting in China, before entering other markets―the gradual introduction to Japan, India, United States and Europe is expected.
  • The FCEV line-up will be expanded for both passenger and commercial vehicles in the 2020s.
Hybrid Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
  • The HEV line-up will also grow, thanks to the further development of the Toyota Hybrid System II (featured in the current-generation Prius and other models); the introduction of a more powerful version in some models; and the development of simpler hybrid systems in select models, as appropriate, to meet various customer needs.
  • Toyota also aims to expand its PHEV line-up in the 2020s.

Electrek’s Take

I don’t want to be too critical because this is a major step in the right direction for Toyota.

For too long, Its zero-emission strategy has been too heavily invested in fuel cell hydrogen, which has proved to be inefficient for passenger vehicles compared to batteries.

This marks an important change from that strategy.

But now I am seeing another needed adjustment to their strategy: they are planning for all-electric vehicles to represent only one-fifth of their electric vehicle sales by 2030 with HEVs and PHEVs accounting for the rest.

I think that will prove to be a(nother) bad call.

Everything points to the industry going all-electric and hybrid powertrains are starting to look like bad compromises. Take Chevy’s declining Volt sales in the wake of its Bolt increases as a canary in the coal mine.

Toyota is biased toward hybrids due to its early success with the Prius, but those days are over. Automakers need to commit to fully-electric vehicles. Our review of the Prius Prime is a *prime* example of Hybrid thinking messing up BEV technology.

The transition is resulting in rapid improvements in battery technology, which is only going to increase the advantages of the batteries as the only energy storage system in cars. I mean even Toyota says that their strategy is based on launching solid-state batteries in 2020.

If they are truly able to commercialize solid-state batteries with better economics than current li-ion cells, then there’s no reason for them not to see that BEVs will represent a much better offer to consumers than hybrids.

There’s no doubt that this change from Toyota is driven by changes in regulations. It’s why their BEVs are being launched in China first where the zero-emission mandate is the strongest.

I think they need to embrace those changes instead of fighting them and change the mix of BEVs, HEVs, and PHEVs, in favor of BEVs.

With this said, again, this is a major step in the right direction for Toyota when it comes to their zero-emission strategy.  Future Energy and Transportation.

tedvinci@gmail.com

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